Bellenden Residents' Group (BRG)

From London Reconnections  White Knights and Wishlists: Northern and Bakerloo Line Extensions 23 January, 2012 by John Bull  link to full article

It has become a much publicised fact that the Bakerloo Line is the only one of London’s Tubes that currently has spare capacity. Given this, it is perhaps no surprise that there has been much talk of its extension.
TfL have confirmed that, as it stands, the best business case would see an extension to Hayes, with one of two routes likely (and almost certainly not Lewisham’s suggested scheme):
1) Hayes via Old Kent and Lewisham
2) Hayes via Peckham and Camberwell Green
TfL Planning Director Michelle Mix, speaking in front of the London Assembly Transport Committee last week, admitted that of these the first option had a far stronger business case due to the inclusion of New Cross.
Despite a strong business case and spare capacity, though, it is financing that once again means that a Bakerloo extension is currently a non-starter.

 
This has become particularly prevalent after the inclusion of a Bakerloo Extension in the long term aspirations expressed in the Mayor’s updated transport strategy. Perhaps encouraged by this, Lewisham then carried out their own investigation into a possible extension of the line. Since then, the Mayor has reiterated his desire to see the Bakerloo extended and his intention to broach the subject with the DfT and Treasury.
Unfortunately, no concrete plan is currently being developed to extend the Bakerloo. TfL have confirmed that, as part of the production of the new MTS, the possibility was investigated and a number of options updated and revaluated (business case comparisons to extending the DLR instead were apparently also made).
 
As a result of this TfL have confirmed that, as it stands, the best business case would see an extension to Hayes, with one of two routes likely (and almost certainly not Lewisham’s suggested scheme):
1) Hayes via Old Kent and Lewisham
2) Hayes via Peckham and Camberwell Green
TfL Planning Director Michelle Mix, speaking in front of the London Assembly Transport Committee last week, admitted that of these the first option had a far stronger business case due to the inclusion of New Cross.
Although TfL’s report into the extension isn’t public, it is thus reasonable to suspect that the proposed route of such an extension would be similar to Option 3 of the 2007 study undertaken by TfL.
 
Despite a strong business case and spare capacity, though, it is financing that once again means that a Bakerloo extension is currently a non-starter.
At the Committee meeting Mix confirmed that the baseline cost estimate for a Bakerloo Extension is currently £3.5bn – £4bn. Sufficient money for such a project certainly doesn’t exist within TfL and, as with the Northern Line, neither Central Government nor the DfT are prepared to make such a commitment. Without a significant commitment from an external source – such as a developer – no work on extending the Bakerloo is likely to take place for the foreseeable future.
As a result, Mix confirmed that TfL currently considered the extension of the Bakerloo to be a very low priority project, with current efforts in that area focused on securing funding to upgrade the Line rather than extend it. Indeed she also confirmed that, to her knowledge at least, there had been no discussion between the Mayor and the Government so far over the topic of a Bakerloo Extension.
 
A Return to the Wishlist
As can be seen above, therefore, without a financial White Knight, talk of both Northern and Bakerloo Line Extensions should very much be taken with a pinch of salt. Both projects have significant merit, but with TfL’s financial efforts focused elsewhere they lack the funding required to be taken further. They may both have significantly stronger business cases than Hillingdon Council’s desire to take the Central to Uxbridge, or the similar extension of the Central to Harlow, but they must remain on London’s wish list nonetheless (a list that perhaps in practical, rather than political, terms the Bakerloo extension never really left).
As a result it seems likely that those looking to see the colours of the Underground map stretch further will have to content themselves in the short term with looking north. There at least some hope can be found as indeed, perhaps, can some lessons. As the history of the Underground has consistently demonstrated (and Herts Council’s persistence with the Croxley Rail Link proved), more often than not expanding London’s transport infrastructure is about being able to whip out the right plan quickly at the right time.
If nothing else, at least for both the Northern and Bakerloo Lines it now seems that those plans exist.